Indicicele dolarului respecta scenariul de analiza saptamanala

In analiza saptamanala Gann pe care o realizam pentru clientii nostri semnalam ca indicele dolarului se gaseste intr-o structura bearish si indicam vanzare cu o prima zona de targetare la 98.80 si un al doilea target in zona lui 97.20.

Piata a confirmat asteptarile noastre si dupa cum putem vedea in imaginea de mai jos pretul a marcat prima zona de targetare de la 98.80 si acum se gaseste in aproierea celui de-al doilea target.

Am marcat partial profitul la +201 pips, am mutat stop loss la BE+ si suntem short in free trade.

Inscrieri la buletinul de analiza saptamanala Gann pe email gannmasterforex@gmail.com

GBP/USD marcheaza al doilea target la +260 pips

Dupa ce ieri lira sterlina versus dolarul american a marcat prima noastra tinta de pret a realizat o scurta corectie si iata ca azi a ajuns pe cea de a doua tinta de pret pe care o semnalasem in buletinul nostru de analiza saptamanala Gann. Marcam aici partial profitul la + 260 de pips. Ramanaem long in free trade.

Înscrieri la Cursurile de Analiză Gann și abonare la Buletinul de Analiză Săptămânală Gann pe email
gannmasterforex@gmail.com  si pe Patreon.com

Daca analizele noastre va plac distribuiti link-ul prietenilor dumneavoastra pe canalele de socializare. Doriti sa aflati mai multe despre analiza Gann, puneti intrebari in rubrica noastra de comantarii. Va vom raspunde pe blog sau in privat dupa cum doriti.  

Goodbye Blogger, Hello WordPress: Mish's GlobalEconomicAnalysis has Moved to MishTalk.Com

It's been a long run, but I am leaving Google Blogger for a new home on WordPress.

Please bookmark my new site: http://mishtalk.com/

Why Leave?

My needs outgrew blogger.

The top reason is that I wanted a multi-page layout, with a different home page than the detail pages. Most of the top financial sites are organized that way. It's impossible with Blogger.

In addition, WordPress offers additional features that Blogger doesn't.

• Ability to write a post and release it at a scheduled time
• Better development tools
• Email notifications
• A point of contact

My entire blog has moved over intact, from the beginning, except for comments. There are just a few more posts to pull over.

Daniel Robert and Michelle Langston at WordPress did a fantastic job with the move, converting all internal self-references to MishTalk from blogger.

Say goodbye to GlobaleconomicAnalysis.Blogspot.Com

Say hello to MishTalk.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

GBP/USD loveste primul target la +203 pips

In buletinul de analiza saptamanala Gann, trimis abonatilor inaintea deschiderii tranzactiilor acestei saptamani, semnalam ca lira sterlina versus dolarul american se pregateste de long si recomandam deschiderea unei pozitii de cumparare cu un raport risc profit rezonabil.

Piata a confirmat scenariul nostru de tranzactionare si dupa cum putem sa vedem in graficul de mai sus, pretul a ajuns pe prima noastra zona de targetare. Daca va aduceti aminte pe 27 ianuarie afirmam ca potrit analizei noastre lira sterlina ar trebui sa targeteze zona lui 1.4450.Marcam partial profitul la +203 pips si mutam nivelul de stop loss la BE+. Ramanem long in free trade.

Înscrieri la Cursurile de Analiză Gann și abonare la Buletinul de Analiză Săptămânală Gann pe email
gannmasterforex@gmail.com  si pe Patreon.com

Daca analizele noastre va plac distribuiti link-ul prietenilor dumneavoastra pe canalele de socializare. Doriti sa aflati mai multe despre analiza Gann, puneti intrebari in rubrica noastra de comantarii. Va vom raspunde pe blog sau in privat dupa cum doriti.  

Iowa Caucuses: Cruz Edges Trump and Rubio; Clinton and Sanders in Dead Heat

Ted Cruz was the surprise winner in the Iowa Republican caucuses tonight edging out Donald Trump who in turn edged out Marco Rubio in a very strong voter turnout.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is just a handful of votes ahead of socialist Bernie Sanders in a vote still too close to call. Given that Clinton was ahead of Sanders by 40 percentage points a few weeks ago, this result may raise more eyebrows than Cruz did by winning the Republican side.

Via Real Clear Politics, the delegate totals look like this.



Mike Huckabee dropped out tonight. In speeches following the caucuses, both Trump and Rubio reached out to Huckabee.

New Hampshire



Trump and Sanders are both supposed to easily win new Hampshire.

Unless Trump puts in a poor New Hampshire showing, Iowa will soon be a meaningless result. Hillary's test comes after New Hampshire.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

"Blue Chip" Optimism vs. GDPNow 1.2% 2016 Initial Q1 Forecast; Strengths and Weaknesses of GDPNow

"Blue Chip" Optimism

The Atlanta Fed initial GDPNow Forecast for first quarter 2016 starts off with an anemic 1.2% whimper.

"The initial GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 1.2 percent on February 1. "

First Quarter 2016 GDPNow Forecast



The Atlanta Fed "Final" GDPNow Estimate for the 4th Quarter was posted on January 28.

The 4th quarter "Blue Chip" consensus at that time was about 1.9%. The actual BEA release was 0.7%.

Strengths and Weaknesses of GDPNow

The strength of the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is that it mimics BEA calculations, thus providing an advance look as to what the BEA will report.

The inherent and unavoidable weakness in the GDPNow model is BEA revisions. GDPNow mimics a model in which data is revised, revised, and revised again.

Late last year the BEA announced it made a major "processing error" in regards to construction spending. The error affects GDP all the way back to 2005.

We will not know the total effect until July 2016. We do know the biggest errors pertain to 2014 GDP which will rise, and 2015 which will fall.

I discussed the forthcoming construction revisions in depth in When are Construction Revisions Coming?

Moreover, GDP is notoriously wrong around economic turns, like now. It's highly likely the GDPNow model has mimicked bad data from the BEA that will be revised substantially lower in the future.

If so, the US is in recession now, with the vast majority of economists in Economic Fantasyland.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Construction Spending Anemic Despite Warm Weather; Where to From Here?

Economists expecting a huge surge in construction spending thanks to unusually warm December weather were no doubt shocked by today's anemic report.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for +0.6% in a range of 0.3% to 1.3%, but not a single economist came close.

Held down by weakness in the nonresidential component, construction spending didn't get a lift at all from the mild weather late last year, rising only 0.1 percent in December following a downwardly revised 0.6 percent decline in November and a 0.1 percent contraction in October. Year-on-year, spending was up 8.2 percent, a respectable rate but still the slowest since March last year.

But there is very good news in the report and that's a very strong 0.9 percent rise in residential construction where the year-on-year rate came in at plus 8.1 percent. Spending on multi-family units continues to lead the residential component, up 2.7 percent in the month for a 12.0 percent year-on-year gain. Single-family homes rose 1.0 percent in the month for an 8.7 percent year-on-year gain.

Now the bad news. Non-residential spending fell 2.1 percent following a 0.2 percent decline in November. Steep declines hit manufacturing for a second month with the office and transportation components also showing weakness. Still year-on-year, non-residential construction rose 11.8 percent.

Rates of growth in the public readings are led by highway & streets, at a 9.4 percent surge for December and a year-on-year rate of plus 12.0 percent. Educational growth ended 2015 at 9.4 percent with state & local at plus 4.4 percent. The Federal subcomponent brings up the rear at minus 1.4.

Lack of business confidence and cutbacks for business spending are evident in this report but not troubles on the consumer side, where residential spending remains very solid and a reminder that the housing sector is poised to be a leading driver for the 2016 economy. Still, the weak December and revised November headlines are likely to pull down, at least slightly, estimates for revised fourth-quarter GDP which came in at plus 0.7 percent in last week's advance report.

Total Construction Spending



Total Construction Spending Detail



Where to From Here?

Total construction spending has stalled since June 2015.

Bloomberg noted the "good news" in residential. Residential construction, especially single family homes, is more likely to be more opportunistic based on weather. New Wal-Mart superstores etc., are planned events.

It remains to be seen if "the housing sector is poised to be a leading driver for the 2016 economy".

I strongly suspect "not".

Mike "Mish" Shedlock